This past week, there have been allegations and counter-allegations that the recently published opinion polls for Meru County were ”cooked” to favour some candidates subject to money changing hands.
Whether it’s true or not, we may never know. Maybe they were biased, maybe it’s just the Politician’s Syndrome where polls are either right or not depending on the outcome.
But why does it matter this much? According to research:
Opinion polls have the bandwagon and the underdog effect. The bandwagon effect claims that voters “jump on the bandwagon,” which means that if a party is gaining in the polls, the party will gain additional support from the voters, and vice versa if the party is losing in the polls. The underdog effect suggests that if a party is losing in the polls, the party will gain some sympathy votes to offset this loss. There is more evidence of the bandwagon effect, and the effect is strongest in the positive direction. When voters learn that a party is gaining in the polls, voters will be more likely to vote for it.
That done, how about we do an Ameru Opinion Poll? It will be open here, and no one will say, “I was not asked” as we often say? Let’s do for all 3 county seats: Governor, Senator and Women Rep. Let’s Ndutis, your identity is safe.